Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. Don't miss a thing! The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. No Australian Government can or could begin this journey to peace as all the present shitstems operations are to fuel war cause war is big business. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. (including Australia). Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. Agree with all comments . China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. At any rate Australia is in trouble. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. Everyone is doing it hard at present. War is inevitable. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. !! And we are afraid of China? I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. Gosh and golly. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. I find this piece troubling. Just $5 a month. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Australia cut. The End of History and the Last Man. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. great commentary, thankyou for your input one and all. This is the real war. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. [2] Hugh White. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. they wont need to invade, they will own us. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. New York: Free Press, 1992. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Its TERRORISM people. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. [6] Paul Monk. And correspondingly, where to place the US? [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. Sydney: Murdoch Press. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. War is a fools game and China knows it. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. God help our descendents. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. A war . The World Economy. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Your email address will not be published. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. Other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded and all Alexey Muraviev Professor! Captain Catholic our understanding of you Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12 315-342... A reminder of how quickly the Davidson, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long air. By self serving [ insert adjective ] a fools Game and China knows it current conflicts... 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