Think tank sees a lot of blue turning red in 2022 By GARY MILLER Jun 8, 2021 38 A liberal think tank says the 2022 elections will be bright red. Spencer lives next door to Baileys legislative office in Louisville, the county seat, and looks out at the county courthouse where Bailey originally litigated against Pritzker, challenging the governors authority to issue and then extend his stay-at-home orders early in the pandemic. Thats a reversal from the middle decades of the 20th century, when the basic trend was toward greater convergence. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. Spencer is the Democratic County chairman in Clay County, about 240 miles south of Chicago. Mostly, Republicans do well in rural areas, Democrats do well in the cities, and the suburbs are mixed but are more Republican. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. Tuesday night, that Democratic progress seemed to halt. People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. The pattern of Democrats contracting into more densely populated areas while surrendering big swathes of political turf is already shaping the contours of the still-early 2022 gubernatorial campaign. People have many reasons for migrating from one state to another, including educational or job opportunities, comparative cost of living, or family connections. Same Since 2000: After 2020 Election Among Republicans, former President Trump is the most popular, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis clearly the leading alternative. By Brian Trusdell | Lightyear (Feature) by Chris Evans Blu-ray . Despite the fact that people of color made up95% of the population growth in the past decade, the states halls of power remain almost exclusivelyin the hands of old, white male lawmakers. The GOP's defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in 2022. This election thus provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent. 3-Day Grace Period for Mail-in Ballots to be Eliminated by Kansas Legislature, House Republicans Looking to Prevent Biden from Enacting Health Emergency Due to Abortion, Republicans Undertaking New Strategy Against Biden Admins Drilling Barriers, US Default Likely if Timely Actions Not Taken, 20 Democratic Governors Form a Network to Improve Access to Abortion, First Hearing on Border Crisis to be Held in March, Florida Senator DeSantis is Critical of Power Imbalances from DC, Senate in Kentucky Allows for Teachers to Refuse Using Kids Pronouns, Newly Nominated IRS Nominee Criticized for 80 billion Dollar Modernization Plan, South Carolina to Play Larger Role in 2024 Elections, US Supreme Court Justice Called Uncle Tom by Democrats, Mass Shootings are Uniquely American, says Michigan Gov. To truly feel the effects of a demographic change, whether its young voters or new people coming in from perhaps more liberal states, people are going to have to turn out to vote, Cross said. Republicans are on a long winning streak in Florida, even if their victories have been by small . Follow him on Twitter:@chrischudeleon. Increasingly, Americans are also choosing to move to places that align with their political views. The picture is a bit clearer for the Republicans. She believes it is time for the state to head in an entirely new direction. Lower taxes, Republican legislatures, and stronger economies people flocked to red states and abandoned blue ones in 2022. Claremont McKenna College Thats the political home turf of state Sen. Darren Bailey, one of four declared GOP candidates aiming to unseat Pritzker next year. Claremont McKenna College "We are at best a purple state" My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. Its a really stacked deck in these states because of this democratic backsliding, Grumbach said. At a Dec. 8 groundbreaking for a new gambling facility in downstate Carterville, Pritzker took issue with the premise on which a reporters question was partly based that he was not well regarded in far southern Illinois. Spencer drew only 18 percent of the vote. The governors of the nations four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. Weve done an awful lot for the entire state, but, especially I think working together with Republicans, we were able to create jobs. Deep in the heart of Texas somewhere between the starry desert nights of El Paso and the blooming sage of Beaumont is the steady beat of profound contradictions. while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights, socially conservative laws that red states have passed since 2021, in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-, may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability. One Florida resident wrote: Hurricanes and heat plus critters. Another: too hot. Democrats in Texas and Florida had additional reasons, frequently mentioning politics and policy concerns. Read: Americas red-blue divide is about to get starker. Find a complete list of them here. Amplify your impact and donate now. Mostly, it comes down to cities. Of the four governors discussed in this report, DeSantis and Newsom are best positioned to run, although Newsom has disavowed any plans to do so. A purple state is one in which voters' support for the Democratic Party, represented by the color blue, and the Republican Party, represented by the color red, is about equal. Greg Abbott and dashing Democratic hopes that the state would turn purple. Jake Grumbach, a University of Washington political scientist who studies the differences among states, told me that red states, as a group, are falling behind blue states on a broad range of economic and social outcomesincluding economic productivity, family income, life expectancy, and deaths of despair from the opioid crisis and alcoholism. Get it Mar 13 - 28. Pat Quinn lost reelection. This divergence itself creates enormous strain on the countrys cohesion, but more and more even that looks like only a way station. I had a real good construction business going, but I seen a year ago that those days were over because Im a Democrat. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern University and Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of other publicly available polls: among Democratic candidates, President Biden is ahead, but there is no clear back-up option. This strain of pessimism extends to quality of life in your community. Approximately one-third of all respondents in the four states stated that the quality of life in their community was worse or much worse now than two years ago. But Arizona is a blue state. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. Get the latest. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson managed to curry favor with 19% of pollsters by comparison. . Since that election, the media have . Sometimes, you might get hit, Spencer said in a tone where it didnt sound like he was joking. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . On any political map, Illinois is a reliable blue state that has elected Democratic governors four of the last five elections and last backed a Republican presidential candidate before Michael Jordan was winning championships in Chicago. The red nation would rank third. Hundreds of Texans died and millions more lost power for days when the states electrical grid crashed during a snowstorm in 2021. Those are things that really get into the fabric and the mindset of people in the rural areas. Many have worried that these refugees may be foolish enough to bring blue-state . Mediocre turnout on Tuesday may be one of the biggest reasons that Democrats didnt see a stronger advantage come from Texas recent population explosion, said Renee Cross, senior director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. *Note: This report was updated on November 8, 2022 to correct an insignificant typographical error. Most of the states we live in appear to be solidly Republican or Democrat. The four mega-states have established rival and increasingly polarized visions of state governmentone blue, the other red. Yet, as much as Spencers political fortunes as a Democrat have suffered, Bailey is highly popular with his areas voters. Not a one-Democrat, one-Republican in the Senate state like Florida was for many years. . Nov. 9, 202212 AM Central. I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. Thats all theyre concerned about is guns and abortion.. Yet, concerns about personal finances do not appear to be driving voting decisions in the gubernatorial races in these states. Topic: Blue state turning red (Read 11398 times) Duke David Atheist2006 Rookie Posts: 240. . Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. California lost a seat for the first time in its history. If you put together the city and the suburbs, thats a winning combination for any candidate. Many are interested in moving to a place where their neighbors would have political and policy preferences closer to their own. Its hard living here.. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some . Last year, the American Enterprise Institute released a Our survey asked respondents to describe their interest in moving as follows: Regardless of whether you will move, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move to another state, or would you rather remain in your current state? It turns out that lots of people are interested in moving, with partisan views contributing to the response. Currently, it looks to be a race between the governor from Chicago and one of possibly four or more GOP contenders, three of whom hail from deep-red downstate. As the Nov. 3 election approaches, debate over which way Texas will lean has led voters to question if Texas is becoming a "purple" state.Having been strictly Republican (red) since 1976 in the presidential elections, Texas now has an increasing number of Democratic (blue) voters in the prediction polls. Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. Meanwhile, independent voters are not moving the needle. In the blue state of Oregon's 5th Congressional District, where it's been over a quarter-century since a Republican last won election, GOP nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer is locked in a very. As a result, Texas might seem like a lost cause to Democrats across the nation. . Gov. No presidential candidate has won it by more than five percentage points this century. Among likely voters: in California, 91% of Democrats are for Newsom; in New York, 89% of Democrats are for Hochul; in Texas, 95% of Republicans are for Abbott; and, in Florida, 97% of Republicans are for DeSantis. The more ground the Democrat Party gains in the suburban areas, the more theyre able to cut loose people from the rural areas, said former Democratic U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard, the partys 1998 nominee for governor. The States Of the Blue Wall. As the nation has sorted itself into red and blue territory, places where Democrats once were competitive in state races have become more solidly Republican. Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. But hes warning that the pressure on the countrys fundamental cohesion is likely to continue ratcheting up in the 2020s. Rural Texas still rules the day. Counties dont vote. In 2018, Pritzker made easy work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points. Through gerrymandering, theyreducedthe number of majority-Black and Latino congressional districts andsplit upAsian communities significantly diluting political power for the Texans of color who have driven population growth. (Podhorzer also offers a slightly different grouping of the states that reflects the more recent trend in which Virginia has voted like a blue state at the presidential level, and Arizona and Georgia have moved from red to purple. At one time we truly were the "United" States of America, but now we have been split into two opposing camps that deeply hate one another. Ships from and sold by RAREWAVES-IMPORTS. But it does mean that the 2020s may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability since those dark and tumultuous years. Using new survey data, this report highlights four main findings. Independents are closely divided between the two. "The migrants are being used as pawns in a politically charged election, intentionally sowing chaos so the governors can say, 'You're getting a taste of your own medicine.'. Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election by taking 100 electoral votes from this 'blue wall' and flipping them. All of these things combine to make this rural-urban divide much greater, he said. The governors of all four states have positioned themselves to win reelection in 2022 by retaining the support of members of their states dominant party, rendering opposition by people outside that party largely irrelevant. On any political map, Illinois is a reliable blue state that has elected Democratic governors four of the last five elections and last backed a Republican presidential candidate before Michael Jordan was winning championships in Chicago. And, he said, his party affiliation has been hard on his wallet. He said the resolution, which sought to put up clear boundaries between red and blue Illinois, attracted the attention of separation groups. But it went nowhere and now, as a candidate for statewide office, Bailey said he no longer embraces the concept and that Illinois is better off together.. Why does this happen? pandemic Undergirding that advantage, he argues, are laws that make registering or voting in many of the red states more difficult, and severe gerrymanders that have allowed Republicans to virtually lock in indefinite control of many state legislatures. Throughout this report, we discuss voters as Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. We have relied on standard questions about party identification to describe these voters and have combined some categories together. [4] In that match-up, Harris leads Newsom 56-44%. Nobody ever talks about that. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. Among Democrats, California appears to be a bit more attractive than New York, and there is some interest in the red states as well. He cited affordable housing and commute times as some of the driving factors. Meanwhile, nearly half of Democrats in Florida and Texas expressed an interest in moving out of state, more than twice the number of Republicans who want to do so. According to Gallup tracking, there were 15 stable blue states in 2017. Schaumburg businessman Gary Rabine is also in the mix as the lone potential suburban entrant. By that. This survey differs from others by including in the field Governor Hochul of New York and Governor Abbott of Texasas well as Californias Governor Newsom, whom most early polls have excluded. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. Baileys lawsuit is pending in Sangamon County Circuit Court, where it was consolidated with other legal challenges to Pritzkers pandemic orders. When Pritzker won the governorship, he reversed the volume of county losses by Democrats. To the extent that planning to move may require at least three of those steps, not very many respondents are close to moving. Currently, 16 states are considered to be a part of the Blue Wall. The one South Texas congressional seat Republicans did claim, with the victory of Monica De La Cruz, was in a district drawn in 2021 to help a Republican win. Texas Republicans maintained their nearly three-decade grip on state government on Tuesday, comfortably fending off a vigorous run to unseat Gov. The increasing divergenceand antagonismbetween the red nation and the blue nation is a defining characteristic of 21st-century America. As functionally one-party polities, these states can pursue aggressive policy agendas, but they also risk overreaching and alienating residents who dont subscribe to their dominant political values. Approximately 36% of respondents supported the Republican, while just 34% threw their hat behind Kotek instead. Bailey, whose home county was represented by a Democrat less than 20 years ago, regards himself as a direct byproduct of downstates hardening red hue, a trend he attributes to a decline in moral integrity and fiscal integrity by those in power, particularly Democrats. The conflict between the blue and red states and their representatives has been building for some time, and may reach a climax in our not-too-distant political future. It may be time to stop talking about red and blue America. Hispanic residents now represent the largest ethnic group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic white residents earlier this year in a census estimate. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still dont have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, he said. That kind of track record can make the state actually look geographically deep red even though Democrats currently hold every statewide elected office. One might think incumbents in these states should fear voter retribution at a time when many Americans are struggling. I just try not to say too much to anybody anymore. This virus has impacted all Americans." MORE: Trump's rebuke of CDC . But although Arizona is blue for now, Volgy isn't committed to that. Iowa, Ohio, and ME-2 are trending red and have gone pretty deep in that direction, Texas is trending blue but the Democrats still aren't getting as much of the vote there as in NC. Turning Red: Directed by Domee Shi. Following the primary, the Texas Democratic Party adopted themost progressiveplatform in state history, including planks of Sanders most transformative policies like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal. That can't be good," Chishti said. "I do not believe that America will become violent enough to be characterized as a civil war," Abrahms says. The core question that Podhorzers analysis raises is how the United States will function with two sections that are moving so far apart. So I went to work at Walmart, he said. U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who lost the South Texas seat she had won in a special election earlier this year, blamed apathy by conservative voters as well as independents who had heavily leaned Republican in Texas polling. "Texas is ready to turn blue." Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean 2010 "Texas Dems are presenting the biggest challenge the state's GOP has faced in decades. Several companies and well-known figures have made highly publicized moves from states like New York and California to destinations like Florida and Texas. Assisted by student research assistants at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, we divided responses into three categories: economic reasons, political and policy reasons, and personal reasons. The gap was smaller but still large in New York, with 63% of Republicans expressing an interest in moving, compared with 34% of Democrats. Our findings indicate that both candidates can count on the support of vast majorities of their own parties, with Newsom losing slightly more Democrats than DeSantis loses Republicans. That doesnt mean that Americans are condemned to fight one another again as they did after the 1850s. Thats owed primarily to Democrat-heavy Cook County with its 5 million residents, including Chicago. This survey provides fresh evidence that the nations four most populous states remain firmly located on opposite sides of our partisan divide, with two in the red camp and two in the blue. A two-Democrats in the Senate, Biden-voting blue state. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. The big blue states of California and New York actually lost people over the last decade, meaning more people moved out than moved in. Whats becoming clearer over time is that the Trump-era GOP is hoping to use its electoral dominance of the red states, the small-state bias in the Electoral College and the Senate, and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court to impose its economic and social model on the entire nationwith or without majority public support. There has never been a more urgent moment, however, for Democrats to organize and fight for transformative change in the Lone Star State. Mostly voting for Democratic candidates means a state becomes Blue. A state with a higher urban population is going to be bluer than a state with a rural population. Data for 2022 are likely to show "massively more divergence", predicts Mr Warshaw. Predicting three states flipping blue to red, four or more Senate seats blue to red and at least 60 house seats blue to red. Is Drazan right for the job and will voters show up to support her in November? Not only arethese laws antithetical tothe popular will of constituents, they also disproportionately harmpeople of color like my family. Florida added one seat, and Texas added two. Forbes magazine says the shift in population has been as much political as it has been economic. Maps: What's the Real Red and Blue Balance of State Government? At least 90% of voters from the opposing party in each state are sticking with their partys candidate. Right-to-work laws are common in the red states and nonexistent in the blue, with the result that the latter have a much higher share of unionized workers than the former. History, in my view, offers two models. analysis "I have no doubt whatsoever that we are not a blue state," Volgy said. Census: US population growth 2nd lowest in history, The nation's political center of gravity shifted further to the Republican-led South and West on Monday, with Texas, Florida and other Sun Belt states gaining congressional seats while chillier climes like New York and Ohio lost them. But so many of today's states have a partisan voting index . Rather than just protecting slavery within their borders, the Southern states sought to control federal policy to impose their vision across more of the nation, including, potentially, to the point of overriding the prohibitions against slavery in the free states. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. As many readers noted, Democrats moving to red states could tilt future elections blue. Life expectancy is nearly three years greater in the blue (80.1 years) than the red (77.4) states. If Newsom or DeSantis make bids, it is clear they would use their respective states as models for what the nation as a whole should become. California and New York have become national catalysts for progressive policies, while Texas and Florida have become the most powerful advocates of conservative alternatives. Drazan has thus far focused her campaign on issues such as public safety. Well, let me start with, I think Im more favored than you think I am, the governor said before ticking off a series of accomplishments in Springfield that figure to be the spine of his reelection messaging. A bunch of readers pointed out something I overlooked when I . By that yardstick, there are 25 red states, 17 blue states, and eight purple states, where state-government control has typically been divided. For more information, visit www.roseinstitute.org. that, using census data, found from April 2020 to July 2021, the top states for inbound migration were Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Carolinas, and Tennessee. Because of this reality, these states can switch from supporting one party to the other, from election to election. He is a graduate student at Harvard University, where hell commission as a U.S. Army officer. The sudden shift could predict an upcoming red wave, but its too early in the race to say that with certainty. Among Democrats, Newsom (7%) lags behind Vice President (and fellow Californian) Kamala Harris (14%) in the large field that includes Biden, and it is far from clear he would be willing to challenge either Harris or Biden. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire countrywith or without majority support. Bailey was once escorted out of the Illinois House because he refused for a day to adhere to the chambers mandate that members and staff wear masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19. With some complex but telling statistical calculations, he documents a return to historical patterns from the Jim Crow era in which the dominant party (segregationist Democrats then, conservative Republicans now) has skewed the playing field to achieve a level of political dominance in the red nation far beyond its level of popular support. As with financial loss, however, concerns about quality of life are not causing members of the majority party to turn against their governors in either red or blue states. Instead, we asked all respondents across the nation to choose, head-to-head, between Newsom and DeSantis. Americas future is Texas. (Some red-state Republicans are even distantly echoing Calhoun in promising to nullifythat is, defyfederal laws with which they disagree.) Claremont, CA 91711 Many of the cities and states that saw their economies bounce back the most from the pandemic-induced slump were those with Republican leaders, who were typically more likely to undo restrictions as they saw them as too excessive. Take Californiaand Mississippi. andrew.sinclair@claremontmckenna.edu [5] Independents are voters who have no party lean, those preferring some other party, and those not sure.. Of note, the top 10 states with the greatest number of new residents are ones that typically lean right (although Arizona and North Carolina both have Democratic governors). By Chris Evans Blu-ray, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points Biden-voting blue state turning red 77.4... Rebuke of CDC year ago that those days were over because Im a Democrat look geographically deep even! Days were over because Im a Democrat have suffered, Bailey is highly popular with his areas voters GOP #! 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